Overview of the African economy as @ 101221

Friday, December 10, 2021 / 3:00 p.m. / United Capital Research / Header image credit: World Bank

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released foreign merchandise trade statistics for Q3-2021, showing that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade increased 58.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2021 to reach 13.3 billion naira (a 10.4% increase quarter on quarter compared to Q2-2021).
  • In addition, Nigeria recorded a foreign trade deficit for the 8th consecutive quarter, reaching a negative trade balance of N3.0tn, against N1.9tn recorded in Q2-2021.
  • Total imports stood at 8.2 billion naira in the third quarter of 2021, an increase of 51.5% year-on-year from 5.4 billion naira in the third quarter of 2020 and 17.3% in quarterly shift. On the other hand, total exports amounted to 5.1 billion naira in the third quarter of 2021, a meager increase of 1.0% q / q from the second quarter of 2021. Crude-related exports accounted for 89.8% of the total value of exports recorded in Q3-2021.
  • Also, the Nigerian President sent the 2021 budget bill to both chambers of the National Assembly for review and approval, in order to facilitate the effective implementation of the 2022 budget.
  • The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has revealed that Friday, December 10 is the scheduled date for the much-anticipated mock auction of $ 197.0 million of 5G spectrum for qualifying telecommunications companies, in preparation for the auction. Main auction scheduled for Monday, December 14, 2021, with roll-out from 2022 in 12 states.

Ghana

  • The Republic of Ghana and the Cooperative Republic of Guyana expressed their commitment to strengthen bilateral relations following the recent meeting between the presidents of the two countries.
  • The Republic of Ghana has received a total of 2.9 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, through a joint effort of the governments of the United States of America and Denmark, in support of the National Immunization Program against COVID-19.

Francophone West Africa

Senegal

  • The first case of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has been confirmed by health researchers in Senegal.
  • According to a report by the “Herald”, the Republic of Senegal has joined the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) as 20e Member State, with a total contribution to the subscription capital of 15.0 million euros, following financial support from the European Investment Bank (EIB).

Ivory Coast

  • According to a Bloomberg report, the total amount of cocoa sent by farmers to ports totaled 80,079 tonnes in October-2021, representing a 12.0% year-on-year decline from 90,995 tons a year earlier.

East Africa

Kenya

  • Kenya’s horticultural exports (3e the biggest foreign exchange income after tourism and tea exports) increased 6.4% year-on-year to 145.4 billion shillings between Jan-2021 and Nov-2021. The volume of flower exports increased 3.3% to 373.8 million kilograms.
  • In addition, according to the Horticultural Crops Directorate (HCD), Kenya was the largest exporter of avocados to Africa in 2020 and was among the top 10 producers in the world.
  • According to HIS Markit / Stanbic Bank Kenya, Kenya’s PMI index climbed to 53.0 in November-2021 from 51.4 in October-2021, with construction, service and retail sectors pushing activity more economic towards a territory of expansion.
  • Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) has ended its plan to acquire a 100.0% stake in African Banking Corporation Tanzania Limited (BancABC) from London-based Atlas Mara Limited, citing regulatory issues.

Uganda

  • According to Fitch Solutions, Uganda’s current account deficit will widen by 10.6% and 11.2% respectively in 2021 and 2022, due to the effects of Covid-19 which have weighed on the country’s tourism sector.
  • According to the African Development Bank’s Electricity Regulatory Index 2021, Uganda’s electricity sector remained the best regulated in Africa on a number of key metrics for the fourth year in a row.

Tanzania

  • Tanzania’s annual inflation rate fell from 4.0% in October-2021 to 4.1% in November-2021 – the highest since March 2018 – due to rising prices for food, gas and gas. kitchen and other items during the period.
  • According to the Bank of Tanzania’s monthly economic review, Tanzania’s exports totaled $ 9.6 billion from January-2021 to October-2021, an increase of 10.8 percent year-on-year from 8.6 billion billion dollars from the corresponding period in 2020.

South Africa

South Africa

  • According to Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), the South African economy contracted 1.5% q / q, compared to the market consensus of a contraction of 1.2% q / q. This was due to pressures from tighter Covid-19 lockdown restrictions and a wave of civil unrest in July-2021.
  • Additionally, StatsSA reported that wholesale trade sales grew 0.2% year-on-year in October-2021. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.1% against negative growth of 0.9% in September-2021.
  • In addition, retail trade sales grew 1.8% year-on-year in October-2021 thanks to the increase in pharmaceuticals, medical products, textiles and clothing. On an am / m basis, retail sales contracted 1.3%, compared to a 5.1% expansion in September-2021.
  • According to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the current account surplus narrowed to Rand 226.4 billion (3.6% of GDP) in Q3-2021, from Rand 311.1 billion ( 5.1% of GDP) in Q2-2021.
  • South Africa recorded the highest number of daily new cases since the discovery of the Omicron variant, with a total of 19,842 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday 7e December 2021.

Angola

  • The Angolan government collected 4.9 billion Kz in oil revenues until October 2021, exceeding the 4.1 billion Kz previously forecast in the 2021 state budget. The rise in crude oil prices on the international market continues to have a positive influence on the country’s oil revenues.
  • The Angolan government has received donations of vaccines from two European countries. Germany donated 275,000 Moderna vaccines while Portugal, through the COVAX initiative, donated an additional 477,600 doses of Covid-19 vaccine.

Namibia

  • The Bank of Namibia decided at its fifth meeting of the year to keep the key rate at 3.75%. This move was taken to help support the economy while preserving the country’s currency peg to the South African rand.

Zambia

  • According to the Zambia Central Bureau of Statistics, inflation in Zambia fell to 19.3% year-on-year in November-2021 from 21.1% in October-2021. The slowdown was mainly attributed to favorable price movements for food and non-food products. On a m / m basis, consumer prices rose 0.6%, following an increase of 0.4% the month before. However, we believe that the high base of the CPI must have supported the fall in inflation.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has entered into a staff level agreement with the Zambian government under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for 2022-2025 to help restore fiscal and debt sustainability, as well than to lay the foundations for an inclusive economic recovery.
  • According to IHS Markit, Zambia’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 points in November-2021 from 51.2 points in October-2021. This shows that trading conditions have improved thanks to stronger consumer demand and lower price pressures.

Zimbabwe

  • The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe MPC announced its decision to keep the policy rate at 60.0%, alongside other measures to strengthen macroeconomic stability.
  • According to data from the Ministry of Health, daily cases of covid-19 in Zimbabwe reached their highest level since the start of the pandemic, with 4,031 new infections recorded on Tuesday, December 7, 2021.

central Africa

DR Congo

  • The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has announced that it has concluded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) amounting to 500 million euros of investments with the French Development Agency (AFD). The agreement is part of AFD’s strategy to strengthen investments in the country.

Katy F. Molnar