Overview of the African economy as @ 030921

Friday, September 3, 2021 / 1:55 p.m. / United Capital Research / Header image credit: Global Africa

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • According to media citing data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), fuel subsidy payments between January and July amounted to N757.0 billion, implying an average monthly cost of NN108.1 billion. nairas. At this rate, the NNPC would commit 1.3 billion naira to fund fuel subsidy payments in 2021.
  • The Minister of Finance announced that Nigeria will launch its Eurobond issue worth 2.3 billion naira on October 11. The country is reportedly hosting roadshows ranging from investors in Lagos to investors in New York and the UK and within the week pricing for the dollar-dominated issue will also be carried out.
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has hired a Barbados-based digital financial technology company, Bitt Inc., as a technical partner for its e-Naira project which is due to be unveiled before the end of the year. The company is expected to establish a subsidiary in Nigeria in which it would have a stake.
  • The president announced the dismissal of the Minister of Agriculture, Sabo Nanono, as well as the Minister of Energy, Engineer Saleh Mamman. We expect to receive more details on the dismissal of ministers later this week.

Ghana

  • According to the Ghana Investment Promotion Center (GIPC), Ghana recorded investments worth $ 874.0 million in 122 projects in H1-2021, 32.2% more than the $ 627.5 million registered in H1-2020. Breaking the report down into domestic and foreign, $ 829.3 million came from foreign sources while $ 44.7 million came from local sources.
  • Based on data from the Bank of Ghana’s 2020 Banking Fraud Report, the total number of registered fraud cases in 2020 increased to 2,670 cases, compared to 2,311 registered cases in 2019. In terms of value of money involved in fraud cases, the numbers have skyrocketed to GHC 1.0 billion in 2020, from GHC 115.5 million in 2019.
  • The German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development has awarded a grant of 100,000 euros for the training of 90 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ghana to improve their competitiveness, including workplace practices.
  • The World Bank has approved $ 103.4 million for Ghana through the Ghana Landscape Restoration and Small-Scale Mining Project which aims to reverse the degradation of approximately 3 million hectares of landscapes and strengthen integrated management of the country’s natural resources.

Francophone West Africa

Ivory Coast

  • Eni announced a major oil discovery in block CI-101 off the coast of Côte d’Ivoire. The block is operated by Eni and Petroci Holding, which hold 90% and 10% respectively in the exploration phase. The discovery well was drilled on the Whale prospect.
  • The Whale-1x well has been successfully tested and represents the first successful commercial deepwater discovery since the last hydrocarbon discovery in 2001 in Côte d’Ivoire.

East Africa

Kenya

  • Kenya’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.6% yoy in Aug-2021, remaining relatively stable compared to the revised figure from July-2021 (6.4% yoy previously) .
  • On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%, while food price inflation accelerated from 8.8% yoy in the previous month to 10.7% yoy in Aug-2021.
  • Kenya is expected to receive the first shipment of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, aimed at boosting the ongoing nationwide immunization exercise. The Kenyan government purchased 393,000 doses through the African Vaccine Acquisition Trust.
  • Earlier this week, the country received 358,200 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine from the Canadian government and a batch of 880,460 doses of Moderna vaccine from the United States. As a result, Kenya’s Covid-19 vaccine portfolio continued to expand.
  • According to the Kenya Bankers Association, the overall tax contribution of the banking sector decreased by 12.7% in 2020 to reach KSh 104.8 billion. This has been attributed to corporate tax rate cuts and a high level of Pay As You Earn (PAYE)
  • Uganda’s headline inflation slowed to 1.9% yoy in August-2021, as a slight increase in core inflation was offset by a slowdown in core inflation. Core inflation fell by 0.3 ppt, from 2.5% in July-2021 to 2.2% in August-2021. However, core inflation increased to 0.1% from 0.0% in July-2021.
  • The government plans to build 10,000 water supply facilities for agricultural production in all parishes of the country to improve livelihoods in rural areas through commercial agriculture.
  • The Uganda National Office of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) suspended the activities of 54 organizations because they were found to be non-compliant with the 2016 NGO Act.

Rwanda

  • Rwanda’s export earnings fell 18.3% m / m in July after five consecutive months of expansion. In July, Rwanda’s trade deficit widened to reach $ 226.4 million in July-2021.
  • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, the annual rate of PPI slowed to 6.9% in July-2021 from 7.7% in June-2021.

Tanzania

  • According to the Bank of Tanzania, the current account deficit narrowed to $ 28.1 million in July-2021, from a deficit of $ 181.6 million the previous month. The surplus on trade in goods and services was $ 14.2 million compared to a deficit of $ 130.6 million in June.
  • Health officials in Tanzania are struggling to dispel criticism and misinformation about the Covid-19 vaccine, which would undermine the country’s vaccination campaign. To date, less than 1.0% of the population has been vaccinated.

South Africa

South Africa

  • New vehicle sales in South Africa jumped 25.7% m / m to 41,425 units in August. Overall, new vehicle sales are up 32.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2020, but down 13.5% year-on-year annual compared to total vehicle sales over the same period in 2019.
  • The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index rebounded to 57.9 points in August, after falling sharply to 43.5 points in July. The business activity index recovered to 58.5 points in August while new orders rose to 60.9 points from 31.9 points in July.
  • South Africa’s trade surplus fell to R37.0 billion in July-2021, with exports falling 11.2% m / m to R145.0 billion in July-2021 while imports fell slightly by 0.7% m / m.
  • Growth in private sector credit creation improved to 0.6% in July-2021, compared to -0.5% in June-2021.
  • Eskom, SA’s state-owned electricity company, has announced the launch of a pilot renewable energy pricing program to help companies make renewable energy commitments.

Namibia

  • Namibia finally seems to be in control of the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic after recording less than 200 confirmed cases per day in recent days, against more than 1,700 per day during the peak of the third wave in early July. -2021. Likewise, the number of deaths fell to less than four per day from 60 days per day during the peak of deaths.

Zambia

  • At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Zambia’s monetary policy makers chose to keep the key rate at 8.5%, as projections show the likelihood of a faster deceleration in inflation, approaching of the central bank’s target range of 6.0% to 8.0%.
  • On the fiscal policy side, newly elected Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has appointed Situmbeko Musokotwane as the new finance minister.
  • According to the Zambia Statistics Agency, Zambia recorded a 3.9% m / m increase in export earnings from refined copper in July-2021 to 13.4 billion K1 from 12.9 billion K in June-2021, due to increased volumes against a backdrop of slowing copper prices.
  • The Zambian Kwacha continued to post gains amid an influx of US dollars at the end of the month and sentiment of a stronger local currency expected in the near term. Zambian bonds have also seen their yields fall across the curve since Hakainde Hichilema became chairman.

Zimbabwe

  • Zimbabwe’s headline inflation rate stood at 50.2% yoy in Aug-2021 compared to 56.4% yoy in July-2021. Inflation continues to be driven by price pressure in the basket of food, utilities and transport. So far in 2021, annual inflation has reached over 310 ppts.
  • Deutsche Bank has terminated its US dollar correspondent banking services with Stanbic Bank Zimbabwe Ltd. Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe cited perceived high risk of sanctions as the driving force behind severing ties with correspondent banks

central Africa

Cameroon

  • According to the presidential circular, Cameroon could grow by 4.4% in 2022, an increase of 1.0% compared to the 3.4% growth forecast for 2021. In 2020, Cameroon recorded a growth rate of 0 , 7% while economic activities were marred by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Economic growth should be stimulated by the non-oil sector which is expected to grow by 4.7%.

Gabon

  • Gabonese health authorities are considering the possibility of giving people already vaccinated a third dose of the vaccine as the number of cases and deaths increases.


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